Pancreatic cancer is uncommon compared with the leading cancers, yet it kills a disproportionate share of the people who develop it. In the United States it accounts for about 3% of all new cancer cases but about 8% of all cancer deaths, and it is estimated that in 2026 there will be about 67,530 new cases and 52,740 deaths. Worldwide, more than 500,000 new cases and more than 460,000 deaths are estimated each year. About 1 in 60 people will be diagnosed during their lifetime.
Age
Pancreatic cancer is a disease of older adults. It rarely occurs before the age of 40, the median age at diagnosis is about 71 years, and most cases are diagnosed between the ages of 65 and 74. Because the population is ageing, the number of cases is expected to rise on demographic grounds alone.
Sex, race and geography
Men are affected slightly more often than women. In the United States, incidence and death rates are higher among Black Americans than in most other groups, a difference that reflects a mix of risk-factor prevalence and access to care rather than a single cause. The highest rates worldwide are seen in high-income regions, including North America, western Europe and parts of the Asia-Pacific.
Trends
Not all of the rise is explained by ageing. Age-adjusted incidence has been increasing by roughly 0.9% each year over the past decade, while the death rate has remained roughly stable, which suggests that some of the increase is real rather than a matter of detection. Survival has improved only slowly. Pancreatic cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and modelling has projected that it will become the second by 2030 as other cancers are detected and treated more effectively.
The disease is lethal out of proportion to its frequency because it causes few symptoms while it is still curable.